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Prediction for CME (2017-05-13T22:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2017-05-13T22:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/12555/-1
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2017-05-17T00:00Z (-4.0h, +15.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2017-05-14T06:23Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 484
Longitude (deg): 12
Latitude (deg): -14
Half-angular width (deg): 27

Notes: Slow filament channel opened up during overnight period 13 May into 14 May around 70S, starting in eastern hemisphere but progressing along entirety of disc at this latitude. Most visible on SDO AIA 211. No X-ray signature. Partial halo visible in Lasco C2, C3 and STEREO A COR 2. Had assumed prior to model run that would largely miss to south of ecliptic, but ENLIL model shows reasonable hit. Error bars interpretation of MOSWOC ENLIL Ensemble.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 57.88 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2017-05-14T14:07Z

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